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August Surprise: Trump Makes Last-Minute Endorsement in Missouri Senate Race – Eric It Is

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Tuesday is the primary in Missouri. As we’ve reported, one of the most hotly contested races for the Show-Me State is the race to replace retiring Senator Roy Blunt, a Republican. Both the Democrat and Republican primaries are tight, but we’ve focused extensively on the Republican race, including significant speculation as to whether or not former President Donald Trump would be making an endorsement. (Catch our in-depth discussion of just that from Friday’s Tim Jones & Chris Arps Show on NewsTalkSTL — video below.)

We already knew if he did, it would not be Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler, given Trump’s direct announcement in mid-July that he would not be endorsing her. Interestingly, Hartzler seemingly didn’t lose much ground after that per the polling, which, most recently showed her consistently in second, with Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt nosing ahead and former Governor Eric Greitens falling back.

Recently, Schmitt has been picking up key endorsements, including Senators Ted Cruz and Mike Lee, plus former White House Press Secretary (and current Republican nominee for Governor of Arkansas) Sarah Huckabee Sanders, in addition to Women for America First. Even Dan Bongino:

But the question remained, what would Trump do? Would he actually weigh in on this one?

By Monday morning, it was beginning to look doubtful. But then Trump announced via Truth Social that he would, indeed, be making an endorsement in the race.

Jason Rosenbaum, a political correspondent for St. Louis Public Radio, laid out the analysis while we awaited the official announcement:

Now, it’s official. Trump has announced his endorsement of…Eric.

Trump is leaving it up to Missourians to decide. Who will they choose?

We’ll know soon enough.

'Women for America First' Endorse Missouri AG Eric Schmitt as MO Senate Primary Enters Final Days

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The GOP primary for the US Senate seat vacated by the retiring Roy Blunt is entering its final days. The election is next Tuesday, August 2nd and, as we’ve covered extensively, it’s coming down to the wire for the top three candidates per the polls.

The latest polls have Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt in the lead and he’s picked up some plum endorsements, including Senator Ted Cruz, Senator Mike Lee, and Sarah Huckabee Sanders. There’s still no word as to whether President Trump will weigh in, but there have been some recent hints that he may yet. There are reports that former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi and former acting US Attorney General Matt Whitaker have been lobbying for Schmitt to receive the endorsement.

Moreover, Congressman Billy Long — also in the race, but consistently running fourth in the polls — spoke with Trump earlier this week. We interviewed Long Wednesday on NewsTalkSTL, and he said he believes Trump “really, really wants to”  — and “probably will” — make an endorsement (video below, starting at the 46:48 mark). And while the Congressman was happy to offer criticisms of his competitors, he also asserted early on in the interview that he believes the race is Schmitt’s to lose.

On Friday, Schmitt picked up another key endorsement — this one, from “Women for America First,” an organization founded in 2019 as:

“the only national women’s organization focused on advancing the America First agenda, upholding the principles and values of putting America and her people first.”

Per the press release (full text linked below), Chairwoman Amy Kremer announced:

“Attorney General Schmitt has a battle-tested record of being a conservative fighter and taking on the Biden administration, Dr. Fauci, big-tech, and fighting against election fraud. Under his watch, Missouri was the first state in the nation to protect the life of the unborn by ending abortion in the state. When elected, he will continue that work in the US Senate to defend our Constitutional rights.

“In a time when the nation has become unrecognizable due to policies of Joe Biden and far-left progressives, it has never been more important for Republicans to take back the Senate. We need someone who will fight for the American people and do what is best for Missouri and Team America…that is Eric Schmitt. He has been and will continue to be a strong ally for Americans and the America First agenda.”

The endorsement from Women for America First is key, particularly in the context of Schmitt’s top competitors in the race. Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler, consistently running second in the polling, but generally within the margin of error, may have lost out on Trump’s endorsement, but has been a strong conservative voice for women. As for former governor Eric Greitens, one of the knocks against him has been the significant baggage he brings with him — baggage that many feel damage his chances with women voters, Republican and independent alike.

Also, on Friday, Schmitt picked up endorsements from Tea Party Express and Freedom Principle Mo.

Thus, the endorsements continue to roll in as the primary fast approaches. Will that translate into Schmitt securing the nomination? We’ll know Tuesday night. (Yes, I’m confident Missouri will have the majority of its election results declared by end of day Tuesday.)

WFAF Eric Schmitt Missouri Endorsement by Susie Moore on Scribd

Crunch Time: Status of the Missouri Senate Race One Week Out

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Missouri’s primary is so late in the game, it seemed like it would take forever to get here. Yet, here we are, just one week away from it. Several of the races to be decided next Tuesday have a lot of eyes on them — the Democratic primary for the First Congressional District (State Senator Steve Roberts is challenging Congresswoman Cori Bush) and the St. Louis County Executive race (attorney and lobbyist Jane Dueker is challenging incumbent tyrant Sam Page), to name just a couple.

However, the race with the most eyes on it is, no doubt, the race for the US Senate seat that Republican Roy Blunt is vacating at the end of this term. We’ve covered that race extensively here at RedState, so it seems fitting to take stock of things now that we’re in the home stretch.

On the Democrat side, the top two contenders are Trudy Busch Valentine and Lucas Kunce. Per the Missouri Times:

Emerson’s poll gives some long-overdue data for the Democrat primary Trudy Busch Valentine, the heiress to the Anheuser-Busch fortune, leads the poll with 39% of the “very likely” vote.

Lucas Kunce, a veteran and former Pentagon staffer, is in second with 35% of the vote. Leaving him well within striking distance. The game changer in this poll is a whopping 22% of undecided voters.

With the seat currently held by Blunt and Missouri being the red state that it has been of late, conventional wisdom says the race is likely to be decided in the GOP primary. While there are roughly 20 candidates on the ballot for the Republicans, the top-tier candidates have remained the same, with former Governor Eric Greitens, Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler, and Attorney General Eric Schmitt the lead contenders. (Congressman Billy Long, “Pink-Shirt-AR-15 Guy” Mark McCloskey, and State Senate President pro-Tempore Dave Schatz round out the top six.)

Greitens, Hartzler, and Schmitt have remained within spitting distance of one another in the polls throughout the race. In late March, the Missouri Scout poll had Greitens at 21 percent, Hartzler at 19 percent, and Schmitt at 24 percent.

However, the two most recent polls show Schmitt surging. The Hill/Emerson poll, taken July 21-23, has Schmitt at 39 percent, Hartzler at 25 percent, and Greitens falling back to 18 percent (with undecideds allocated), while the Trafalgar Group poll, taken July 22-24, has Schmitt at 27 percent, Hartzler at 24 percent, and Greitens at 20 percent.

RCP MO Sen Polling Data (Credit: RealClearPolitics)

Current fundraising numbers also give the advantage to Schmitt. As of July 13, 2022, Schmitt’s campaign had $3.6 million in receipts, with just north of $1 million on hand. Hartzler was not far behind, with close to $3.5 million in receipts, and $1.1 million on hand. Greitens had $2.2 million in receipts, with $370,000 on hand.

One thing to note about those receipts, as detailed in this article, the bulk of Greitens’ contributions (77.8 percent) have come from out-of-state, rather than from Missourians. In contrast, 77.9 percent of Schmitt’s and 74.4 percent of Hartzler’s have come from in-state.

In terms of endorsements, Hartzler picked up Josh Hawley, Missouri’s junior senator, early on, along with that of former Senator Kit Bond.

Cruz-Schmitt
Sen. Ted Cruz stumps for MO AG Eric Schmitt in Cottleville, Missouri, on Saturday, July 23, 2022 (Credit: Susie Moore)

Schmitt has been endorsed by Senator Ted Cruz (who stumped with him in Missouri on Saturday), Senator Mike Lee, former acting US Attorney General Matt Whitaker, and former National Security Adviser Robert C. O’Brien. On Monday, he picked up another plum endorsement, that of Sarah Huckabee Sanders.

The wild card in all of this, of course, is whether or not President Trump will opt to weigh in on the race. We know he will not be endorsing Hartzler — he’s made that quite clear. As I noted at the time of that announcement:

While President Trump has called Greitens “smart” and “tough,” he’s also acknowledged there are some drawbacks.

Later, during an appearance on the pro-Trump OAN TV network, Trump was urged by interviewer ​​Chanel Rion to throw his weight behind Greitens because he is only candidate in the primary to openly condemn Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

“He’s the one the Democrats legitimately want to run against,” Trump said, before later adding: “Eric is tough and he’s smart. A little controversial, but I’ve endorsed controversial people before. So we’ll see what happens.”

There’s a reason the Democrats “legitimately want to run against” Greitens. In addition to the significant baggage that accompanied his resignation and continues to swirl regarding his ongoing custody battle, the polling shows the top Democratic candidates fare better head-to-head against Greitens than against Schmitt or Hartzler.

Schmitt hosted a successful fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago in March.

As noted by the Missouri Times:

Should Schmitt get a Trump endorsement, the primary would essentially be over.

So the question remains: Will he? Or won’t he?

Either way, most Missourians’ eyes will be fixed on this race, anxious to see the outcome on August 2nd.