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Joe Manchin's Latest Move on Reconciliation Will Have Liberals Seeing Red

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Earlier today, RedState reported on the Senate parliamentarian saying that a pathway to citizenship (or green cards) for illegal immigrants is a no-go as part of the massive reconciliation play being made by Democrats. That represented another big wrench thrown into the gears of the process, but Sen. Joe Manchin may have just offered up a hand grenade of his own.

We’ve known for a while that Manchin is not supportive of the $3.5 trillion cost of the Bernie Sanders-led, Joe Biden-backed budget bill. The West Virginia senator recently reconfirmed that commitment to some semblance of fiscal sanity via an op-ed that left many Democrats furious. But now, he’s going a step further by making it clear where the leverage in this situation lies.

While Pelosi and Schumer keep levying threats and arbitrary deadlines, Manchin has announced that he’s willing to walk altogether, saying Biden’s agenda can wait until 2022.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is privately saying he thinks Congress should take a “strategic pause” until 2022 before voting on President Biden’s $3.5 trillion social-spending package, people familiar with the matter tell Axios.

Why it matters: Manchin’s new timeline — if he insists on it — would disrupt the plans by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to vote on the budget reconciliation package this month.

Now, while I’d love to tell you that Manchin is truly looking to leave the table until next year, I think this is much more of a brush-back pitch than an actual commitment to stop reconciliation from happening in 2021. In other words, I think this is Manchin signaling to Nancy Pelosi, who is dead-set on an end of September reconciliation vote, that she needs to slow down, pass the infrastructure package first, and understand that the far-left will have to let go of some of their hopes and dreams. From there, perhaps there’s some compromise that gets the reconciliation package down below $2 trillion with Democrats still getting 60% of what they want?

Yet, I’m not so sure that happens because of how militant the liberal faction is. What does Ilhan Omar have to gain by voting on a watered-down reconciliation package? That doesn’t raise her profile any. We know Bernie Sanders is going to continue to loudly object as well. If nothing gets done, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez gets to make the media rounds and claim Manchin kept her from saving the world, and we all know self-aggrandizement is a heady brew for far-left politicians.

In summary, whether we are talking House or Senate, you have two sides with no incentive to give in. Manchin no doubt wants to get something done, but he doesn’t want to commit career suicide in the process. I think that’s what this threat to leave the table until 2022 is all about. It’s a last-ditch effort to make Pelosi and Schumer understand that they are out of options here. They either side-line the radicals and play ball, or they get nothing.

That reality is running headlong into a promise made by Pelosi that she would not pass the infrastructure deal before a reconciliation package. But as I wrote weeks ago (see Nancy Pelosi Screwed up and People Are Starting to Realize It), the San Franciso liberal painted herself into a corner. We’ll see how she responds.

Republicans Can Accept Reality in Places Like California or Keep Losing

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While the results are still coming in, it’s clear that Gov. Gavin Newsom will survive the attempt to recall him by a fairly wide margin. That’s not necessarily a surprise given the electoral realities that exist in California, which leans heavily far-left.

Regardless, Republicans who beat the ground and put in the work despite the odds, including several members of the RedState team, deserve all the praise in the world. They are the type of people who will eventually lead to real change occurring in one of America’s most beautiful states. With that said, I think it’s time to look back at what transpired and be realistic about what went right and what wrong.

So to open this up, I’ll just say it: Larry Elder was a terrible fit for this race.

Let me caveat that statement by saying that I think Elder is a great guy personally. My issue is not that I think he holds objectionable political views. I also believe he was truly trying to do what he felt was best for California, and in another reality, he would have made an excellent governor of the state. Unfortunately, that reality is not the one we live in.

It is no secret that California is easily the most left-wing state in the union. Because of that, the moment that Elder entered the race as a far-fight, Fox News appearing, Trump-supporting candidate, we saw a shift in polling on the recall question toward keeping Newsom around. Further, as it became clear that Elder would win the second question and become governor if the recall succeeded, Democrats became energized and rallied around ensuring the recall itself failed. Why? Because Elder was not perceived as a safe enough choice to replace Newsom. The rest is history.

And look, I get it. That reality is infuriating for many Republicans across the country who want to believe that everyone loves Donald Trump and that the America First agenda is preferred in even the deepest blue areas. But that’s not true in California, and it was never true in this race. That’s why Kevin Kiley, who RedState endorsed early on, was always a much better candidate for this race. Elder may have been a better candidate in a myriad of red-state races, but this wasn’t a red-state race.

To give another example, we saw this same dynamic with Kimberly Klacik when she ran in a far-left district in Baltimore. Again, I like Klacik personally and I think she holds perfectly acceptable political views. Yet, she was a terrible fit for her race. You do not compete in these radically left-wing areas by running as a Fox News candidate.

Now, I admit that no matter what candidate you put up in some of these races, it’s still a long shot that a Republican is going to win. But that’s not an excuse to lean into doing things that are obviously self-defeating. Elder should have recognized his own liabilities and instead thrown his weight behind someone who wouldn’t have undermined the recall question itself. There was a point where the recall race was far closer, and that was before he entered the race.

Republicans can not operate on the hopes and dreams of purists. We have to accept the reality of the electorates that we are faced with. On the national level, there is a lot of leeway to run a more America First type candidate and to be successful doing that. But in California, that luxury does not exist. The first step to competing there is accepting that truth and running candidates that fit the electorate. In practical terms, that probably looks a lot more like someone who is moderate and Hispanic than someone who appears on Tucker Carlson (and people know how much I like Tucker).

There is no victory in losing by 70% while elevating someone that appeals more to people in Alabama than California. The GOP has the ability to make headway in areas of the country that are predominantly left-leaning, but the party and its voters must be smart in how they go about it, and even then, it’s an uphill battle. In short, beating one’s head against the wall is not a viable strategy.

Gavin Newsom's Win Will End up Dragging Democrats Down

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In California, what was once a tight recall election became a comfortable win for the current governor, Gavin Newsom. There will be a few autopsies of the race, trying to find out what happened, but ultimately it doesn’t matter. California remains in Democratic hands for the foreseeable future.

If anything, I think embracing the entertainment side of the race probably hurt the Republicans more than anything. The leading candidate, Larry Elder, bought into the media hype that it was about him and Newsom, which allowed the media and the Democrats to define him. That put the battle squarely in their terms and not the Republican Party’s terms. More message discipline, more focusing on Newsom rather than Elder might have made the difference.

As it stands, the moment the race became about Elder appears to be the moment that the polling numbers began to widen, giving Newsom the lead he needed. This was also around the time the race also became about Elder and Trump, and Elder embracing that was the final distraction needed to take all the focus off the governor and his draconian policies.

But this win will actually embolden Democrats across the country to double down on those policies because the Democrats are really bad about divining the meaning behind their victories. They see their electoral wins as mandates from the voters when, more often than not, the voters are merely tired of some of the extremes the Republicans are offering (an endless war, a reality star mean girl president, etc.). To be fair, Republicans are just as bad, interpreting voters seeking more moderation from the far-left Democrats the wrong way.

Gavin Newsom
AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes

Democrats will see Newsom’s win as a sign that the people really are okay with being told to mask after getting vaccinated. They will think Americans want more government mandates on everything from vaccines to indoor seating limitations. All of this will come as the images from the Met Gala — where Democrats ate $35,000 meals, glad-handed the rich and influential while wearing expensive political activism in the form of gowns, and stood unmasked as the help surrounding them were masked — are still fresh in the American voters’ minds.

At this point, like Elder, the Democrats are buying into the media’s hype. They think that this win means the race was really a conservative effort to dethrone one of them when, in reality, the problem was voter dissatisfaction with Newsom’s constant hypocrisy toward his own mandates. He told voters to mask up, even while eating in restaurants (the ones that could afford to stay open), all while he was pictured breaking that rule. He told them to avoid gatherings while he hosted lavish parties. He forced kids to go to camps with strict mask requirements while sending his own to athletic camps with no mask requirements at all.

He has used public office to enrich himself while homelessness runs rampant in his state, causing health and safety concerns. His policies lead to regular blackouts during the wildfires of the summer months. Literally, everything he has done as governor has hurt the state. But it’s all done in the name of Progress, and the voters were fine keeping him in office over an alternative. California voters will have to own up to that when he doubles down, and Democrats across the country will suffer when they join him in doubling down.

Because in 2022, the voters will speak their minds about these draconian policies. And the polling across the states does not bode well for them now. Imagine how much worse it will be when they do more and more in the name of “safety” (or, really, control). While it may be bad for people now, in the long run, it’s going to be worse for Democrats more.

The White House Unleashes Its Secret Weapon to Try to Save Vulnerable Democrats

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As those that reside in the beltway continue to encroach more and more on the individual lives of Americans, a backlash is building. You won’t see it in the pages of The New York Times or on CNN, nor will it be admitted to by any number of blue checkmark liberals on social media, but rest assured, it’s coming.

And while they will continue to put on a happy face, I think Democrats are well aware of the corner they’ve painted themselves into. With every radical move in Washington, more and more “moderate” Congressional members see their chances at reelection decrease back home.

Never fear, though. The White House is unleashing its secret weapon, famed educator and political dynamo…Jill Biden?

As I’ve written before, the level at which Jill Biden operates as a political operative for her husband is unusual. Perhaps that’s a result of her own ambition, something that was previously exposed as she pushed her mentally declining husband through the 2020 campaign. Regardless, I’m not sure the First Lady resonates with anyone who isn’t already rabidly left-wing. Does anyone think an Iowan is going to change their vote because Jill Biden showed up to tell them about “build back better?” Color me skeptical.

Yet, persuasion seems to be the plan for the White House and Democrats at large going into 2022. Jill Biden will appear with Rep. Cindy Axne, who was the only Democrat to win a House seat in Iowa in 2020. Axne took down David Young for the second time in as many years by 1.4%. As an aside, Republicans should really stop running the same people who keep losing over and over (cough Martha McSally cough).

Regardless, Democrats know the landscape is going to look far different in 2022, especially for liberal incumbents in swing districts. These are the places that I think the appeal of Jill Biden just won’t resonate. She represents a Washington ruling class, led by her husband, that has brought about failure after failure over the last year. Even the discussion of school reopenings is tone-deaf, especially in Iowa where schools are already open. Normal people are tired of federal apparatchiks flying in on private jets to tell them what they need to do with their families.

As for the push to promote Biden’s agenda, what part of that is supposed to appeal to people in Iowa? This just seems like a strategic error to me. Any Democrat in a swing district would do well to distance themselves from anyone and anything connected to the Biden administration. But I think the egos involved here are too large to let that happen. We’ll see how it all works out for Jill and her cohorts.

PODCAST: What Is Going on With the California Recall With Scott Hounsell

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The podcast Bourbon on the Rocks is here for Thursday, September 9th, 2021 and its host Duke is tackling this…

People across the country watched as Gov. Gavin Newsom was put on the recall chopping block earlier this summer and the vote on this is next Tuesday. RedState contributor and host of the VIP Gold Chat on Wednesday nights Scott Hounsell joins Duke to break down what the ballot will look like and how does it look for Newsom to be recalled.

You don’t want a 3-minute blurb on T.V. from someone who does not live in Cali telling you what is the story. Listen to Scott break it down and get the real scoop.

Also, if you are NOT a VIP subscriber yet please consider trying it today to read articles and watch videos that are NOT censored by Facebook or Twitter. Use the code LADUKE when you click HERE

Any questions comments or concerns about the show reach out to moi at [email protected]