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Sorry, Newt, DeSantis Is Still in the Race

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As has become his habit lately, in a recent opinion piece, Newt Gingrich presents the current polling numbers for the Republican presidential nomination race as though they are infallible. He once again fails to acknowledge the inherent volatility and uncertainty of early flash polls. He should know better.

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As I’ve already pointed out here, it’s important to understand that flash polls conducted this early in a primary process often fail to accurately reflect the ultimate decision that voters will make several months from now. There are still over 100 days before the Iowa Caucus. 

Speaking of polls, I was at my grandson’s birthday party this past weekend in California, and my son’s in-laws were there. I was told that one of the uncles was a Trump supporter. Naturally, I started up a conversation with him, and when I asked him what he thought of Ron DeSantis, he said he didn’t know anything about DeSantis… 

Why is this notable? Because if this guy is polled, who do you suppose he’ll say he supports? Now, admittedly, as I said, he is a Trump supporter, so it’s expected that he would say exactly that to a pollster. But my larger point is that DeSantis is still not a well-known quantity to many voters in the Republican Party. 

This point is, despite Newt’s prognostications, based almost entirely on the polls, this primary race has a long way to go still.

Moreover, there are several reasons why these polls may not be a reliable indicator of the future. First and foremost, voters’ opinions can still change over time as they learn more about the candidates and their policies and view their performances in debates and local town halls. 

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And by the way, candidates who live by the polls can also sometimes die by the polls. 

I am a believer in free markets, which rely heavily on data. Political markets are no different. More data can result in changing public opinion. Furthermore, the dynamics of a race can dramatically change due to unforeseen events, policy shifts, or even scandals. 

It is simply impossible to predict what developments may occur over the course of a primary campaign that could significantly alter the trajectory of the race. 

As the primary campaign progresses, individuals may shift their support to a different candidate based on new information or evolving circumstances. As more information is provided to the political marketplace, the more we can reasonably expect public opinion and voter attitudes to change. 

In the case of Governor Ron DeSantis, the truth is we really don’t know what is working or not working unless our only metric is flash polls. If the sole objective of the DeSantis campaign is to lead in the national polls, then clearly, it isn’t working. 

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However, if that isn’t the DeSantis campaign’s sole objective, and the objective is instead to solidify a grassroots, ground support turnout model in Iowa, then we won’t know if that’s working for at least another 90 days. 

Ron DeSantis has a solid track record, has consistently demonstrated his commitment to conservative principles, and has shown an amazing ability to deliver on the issues Republican voters care about. He has successfully navigated tremendous challenges and has also championed policies that align with the values and priorities of the Republican Party.

Furthermore, it is important to note that Governor DeSantis still possesses a strong base of support among Republican voters. 

Primary campaigns are dynamic, and the candidates in the race still have the opportunity to regain momentum and build support as the race progresses. To suggest the race is over 110 days before the first votes are cast amounts to nothing more than, well, election interference.

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Lastly, by relying solely on early polling numbers to determine the viability of the DeSantis campaign, Newt Gingrich is demonstrating a shortsightedness unworthy of a historian. So, with all due respect to the former House Speaker, this race is very much still fluid, and there are still ample opportunities for candidates, including and perhaps even especially, Ron DeSantis, to capture the hearts and minds of Republican voters.

WATCH: James Clyburn Fires 2024 Warning Shot at Joe Biden as Kamala Harris Gets More Bad News

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We reported over the weekend how President Joe Biden was hit with a wave of more bad polling news, with an ABC News/Washington Post poll giving him a 64 percent disapproval rating with voters on the economy (and showing him trailing 10 points behind Trump in a general election match-up). An NBC News poll showed Biden down by double digits among key Democratic voting blocs and with a 72 percent disapproval on the economy.

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Something not widely reported on but also of obvious concern to the Biden-Harris campaign was Vice President Kamala Harris’ net favorability rating. NBC News had it at 31% positive and 51% negative, which was worse than what they showed for Biden and Trump.

Former House Majority Whip and current Assistant Democratic Leader in the House James Clyburn (D-S.C.) appeared on “Meet the Press” Sunday to discuss in part the ongoing polling woes of Biden and Harris headed into 2024 and what he thought it meant for the campaign at this stage in the game.

Specifically, Clyburn was asked about Kamala Harris’ numbers and if he had any guesses as to “why” they were so bad. As per the norm, Clyburn leaned in on the talking point about how Harris is the first woman to ever be vice president and the fact that she’s also a woman of color, which Clyburn strongly insinuated was to a large extent behind why her numbers were not good.

But along the way, Clyburn also sent a warning shot to Joe Biden as the unwillingness of several prominent Democrats to give a strong endorsement for Harris to be Biden’s running mate again has raised questions as to whether those Democrats and a majority of Americans feel like she would be a good fit to lead the country in the event Joe Biden decides to step down (bolded emphasis added):

KRISTEN WELKER: Well, I know that you’re saying you don’t look at the polls too much. But our poll does show her favorability is actually lower than President Biden and even than former President Trump. Why do you think she’s not resonating more with voters? What do you think the issue is?

REP. JIM CLYBURN: Because when you compare the first woman of color and first woman to be vice president of the United States, and compare that to all of the history before, you will get that. I think that during this campaign, she will demonstrate, as she did in that hall last night, that she knows exactly what she’s doing. She has the capacity and the capability to be president of the United States if called upon to do so.

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Watch:

Reading between the lines there you can see a subtle warning shot sent to Biden, which is: Don’t even think about dropping her off the ticket, buddy.

Clyburn, as RedState readers may remember, was instrumental in pressuring Biden in 2020 on the issue of nominating a woman of color as his running mate as a condition for his support. And Clyburn’s announcement in late Feb. 2020 that he backed Biden prior to the South Carolina primary was considered pivotal to Biden’s “comeback” in the campaign.

Biden undoubtedly feels very beholden to Clyburn for his machinations behind the scenes to rally the troops on his behalf at a time when some felt Biden’s campaign was on the ropes. So he – or, more to the point, his handlers – are in my opinion not even going to entertain the idea of replacing Harris on the ticket if for no other reason than not to agitate Clyburn, who is a powerful Democrat not just in Washington, DC but also back home in SC, where 60% of Democratic party voters are black.

In other words, the same things that got Harris picked in the first place – her physical characteristics – are likely going to be what keeps her from being kicked off of the ticket in 2024 despite her being a drag on Biden’s struggling campaign, which just further demonstrates the folly of identity politics – and which is something the GOP can and should use against Biden come election time.

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Related: Tense Moments for Kamala Harris as Joe Biden Bumbles Through Rambling Gun Control Speech

New Poll Reveals Devastating News for President Biden, Great News for Republican Candidates

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President Joe Biden just got some horrible news. A new poll shows that he is trailing not one, but three Republican presidential candidates. While the election is still more than a year away, these numbers do not portend good fortune for Biden’s chances of winning re-election.

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The poll suggests that several GOP candidates are ahead of Biden in a hypothetical matchup, which could spell trouble for him at the ballot box next year.

President Biden is trailing former President Trump, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) in several hypothetical 2024 match-ups in a new survey from Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll shared with The Hill.

The poll found that 44 percent of respondents said they would vote for Trump when asked about a hypothetical match-up between him and Biden in 2024, while 40 percent said they would back the current president. A separate 15 percent said they were unsure or didn’t know.

The polling is largely unchanged from a similar Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll conducted in July, which had Trump at 45 percent and Biden at 40 percent.

The poll also found that 41 percent said they would back Haley, compared to 37 percent who said they would support Biden. When asked about a match between Biden and Scott, the president received 37 percent, while Scott received 39 percent.

Interestingly enough, the poll also showed Biden defeating Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence.

The poll, however, found that Biden performed better against former Vice President Mike Pence — Biden received 42 percent while Pence received 36 percent; Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who trailed Biden 42 percent to 38 percent; and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who came in at 37 percent while Biden received 39 percent.

Trump continues to dominate the Republican presidential primaries by a wide margin. But what is even more interesting about this poll is that neither Haley nor Scott have broken into double digits, according to the most recent RealClearPolitics average. This is certainly an unexpected development.

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Over the past few months, polling has shown that Americans are increasingly concerned about the president’s age and cognitive abilities. They have also indicated that most Democratic voters would rather see a different candidate vie for the presidency. Nevertheless, Biden remains the candidate so far.

Still, it is worth noting that this is just one poll and we have over a year until the election is decided. But these findings should not be dismissed lightly. Biden is the incumbent, which means he should be leading in the polls, even this early in the process. The fact that he is trailing multiple potential opponents is not a good sign for Democrats.

Further compounding the issue is the reality that concerns about Biden’s age and cognitive abilities aren’t going away. Biden is still getting older, and he continues to beclown himself whenever he gives a speech or press conference. While it isn’t impossible that his campaign could turn things around, these numbers show that such an undertaking won’t be an easy one.