Fierce Patriots

Conservative Political News

  • Subscribe

<![CDATA[Ukraine]]>

Biden's New Cover for High Gas Prices Is Making You Think It's a Moral Issue

by Leave a Comment

Are you sick of paying high gas prices? Well, you’re just going to have to tough it out because paying more for gas is the right thing to do. We have an overseas dictator to defeat, after all, despite the fact that we’re not actively at war with him.

According to President Joe Biden, the high gas prices you’re currently enduring are necessary for as long as it takes to defeat Russian president Vladimir Putin and his war on Ukraine.

This came after a reporter asked him how long American drivers would have to endure gas prices this high as a “premium for war.”

“As long as it takes,” Biden said, “so Russia cannot in fact defeat Ukraine and move beyond Ukraine. This is a critical, critical position for the world. Here we are. Why do we have NATO? I told Putin that in fact, if he were to move, we would move to strengthen NATO. We would move to strengthen NATO across the board.”

This reasoning might work on leftists who like to put the Ukraine flag in their Twitter handles, but for everyone else, this isn’t a good reason. It’s unclear how long this war is going to go on, and “it’ll happen till it doesn’t” isn’t going to put voters at ease. Appealing to their better angels with lies is only going to further anger people every time they have to make a pass at the pump.

Moreover, for many other Americans, it’s clear that this is just a thin cover for the fact that the Biden administration has created this gas crisis by refusing to lift regulations on oil companies, allowing them to drill and refine oil here in the states.

(READ: Oil and Gas Associations Unite to Destroy Biden’s Narrative About Who’s Behind the Energy Crisis)

Biden knows that this mess is happening to America because his administration won’t cooperate with oil companies due to an agenda the Democrats wish to upkeep and a narrative they don’t want to lose. Not to mention moving toward opening up oil companies for further business would upset his radical base.

When it comes to the gas crisis, Putin isn’t the problem, it’s Biden. By attempting to, once again, put this on Putin he’s appealing to emotions most Americans don’t have, and every time he does he only makes them angrier.

Putin's War, Week 18. Snake Island, Prisoner Exchanges, Calculated Terror, and the War in Donbas

by Leave a Comment

Welcome back.

Let’s do a roundup of what the situation looks like 128 days into Vladimir Putin’s 72-hour Special Military Operation against Ukraine.

Strategic Level

Major takeaways from the NATO Summit.

NATO member states have agreed to begin providing Ukraine with offensive weapons. This is a huge departure from the status quo. When NATO agreed to send HIMARS and MLRS to Ukraine, they also agreed to equip them with rockets that couldn’t directly threaten Russian population centers. My guess is that the physical manifestation will be several hundred German Leopard 2A4 tanks currently in storage. They are obsolescent by the standard of the Abrams, Leopard 2A7, and Challenger 2, but they will be competitive with the Russian tanks that crossed the frontier in February and superior to the T-62s beginning to appear as replacement tanks in Russian units. We can surmise that transferring to Ukraine the upgraded MiG and Sukhoi fighters that gave everyone the vapors back in March-April is not far behind.

NATO/EU is working to establish transit routes for Ukrainian grain via Poland to avoid Russia’s blockade in the Black Sea. This will not be a quick process, but, like Western Europe seeking out new oil and gas supplies, it could be permanent.

The big news, of course, is that Sweden and Finland will join NATO–there is a rumor that Bulgarian might object because it gets 70+% of its natural gas from Russia. That would be a high-risk move for the Bulgarian government should it decide to do so.

Joe Biden, the UK’s Johnson, France’s Macron, and Germany’s Scholz have all said: 1) the war is going to be long, 2)  it is vital that Russia not gain territory from the war, and 3) they will do what it takes to ensure Ukraine retains he capability to liberate its territory from the invading Russians. Talk is one thing; convincing economically challenged voters is something entirely different.

Talk of forcing Ukraine to accept a disadvantageous peace agreement is now the exclusive province of folks who, for whatever reason, have decided that Russia is the aggrieved party that must be mollified.

Both rhetoric and actions indicate the perception that Russia is struggling and can be beaten.

Notably, the Russian government–this does not include members of the Russian Duma/Federal Assembly who can say stuff at least as exotic as anything Maxine Waters can come up with–has dialed back threats of nuclear Armageddon. Putin has threatened to give Belarus nuclear-capable missiles (just a note, these would be a weapon type that Russia agreed to give up when the INF treaty was signed). Belarus President Lukashenko has asked Russia for nuclear weapons. This needs to be monitored, but it doesn’t seem all that probable. I’m sure that Putin and Lukashenko would not like Poland to get nuclear-capable missiles.

Operational Level

It’s always good to remind ourselves of the situation on the ground. This is the video of the first 90 days of the war.

Despite a lot of breathless reporting, that situation is largely unchanged. This map, courtesy of the Institute for the Study of War, shows the front line remains static. There are changes; we’ll hit the Russian operation in Donbas in a moment, but not significant changes.

New weapons in action

The US authorized the transfer of truck-based Harpoon missiles to Ukraine. They have been credited with sinking the sea-going tug Vasily Bekh.

HIMARS makes its debut.

Ukraine is getting a major infusion of top-of-the-line NATO tube artillery along with rocket artillery. The German Panzerhaubitze 2000, French CAESAR, US M-109 and M777, and the Polish Krab are only some of the systems being deployed. Maintenance of a polyglot grouping of weapons can be a challenge for anyone. I suspect that higher echelon maintenance is being performed by foreign civilian contractors hired via the billions of dollars flooding into the war.

Several hundred Ukrainians have been trained to use the new artillery in Germany and the UK; more are being taught.

First prisoners from Mariupol have been exchanged.

When the city of Mariupol fell in May, some 1,700 Ukrainian soldiers passed into Russian custody. Most of those were members of the Azov battalion that the Russians and their fellow travelers derided as “Nazis.” The negotiated surrender agreement said they would be exchanged. The first of these are now back in Ukraine.

Terror is now a weapon.

A week ago, a shopping mall in Kremenchuk by a Russian cruise missile. The fact that it was a cruise missile suggests that the mall was the intended target.

This is not a one-off. Several times each week, civilian targets, remote from the front and from military facilities, are hit by Russian missiles. It seems pretty clear that terror has become one of Russia’s standard tactics.

Russian generals continue to be fired.

The turmoil continues in the Russian chain of command in Ukraine.

It is hard to determine what is going on without knowing the context. Is this a “give me results, now!” situation? Or are the patently incompetent and politically connected generals being weeded out? Is this the German Army in 1945? Or the American Army after Kasserine? I have my opinion, but it is just that.

Thrown into this mix is the arrival of HIMARS is giving the Ukrainians the ability to target headquarters out of range of tube artillery and the high mortality rate of senior Russian officers because of the peculiarities of that army’s organization.

Ukrainian prisoners sentenced to death by a Donetsk court.

Ukraine has as many as 30,000 foreign volunteers in the ranks of its Territorial Defence Forces, a branch of the Ukrainian military. They have all taken an oath and met the requirements of the UN Convention on the use of mercenaries. These fighters are some of the most skilled in the Ukrainian Army. Two Britons and a Moroccan were captured. Russia has no death penalty, so they were turned over to a Donetsk “Republic” kangaroo court.

Two Americans have been captured, and the same fate probably awaits them.

Snake Island

The arrival of modern artillery and Harpoon anti-ship missiles has made Snake Island untenable. Today, the Russians announced they had abandoned the island as a “goodwill gesture” to open a shipping lane for Ukrainian grain. Why Snake Island would have to be abandoned to accomplish this–not shooting at civilian ships would achieve the same purpose–is anyone’s guess.

As I pointed out in an earlier post on the subject, anti-ship missiles on Snake Island, assuming they are deployed in tandem with credible air defense systems, puts Ukraine’s remaining Black Sea frontage, particularly Odesa and the Danube estuary, off-limits to the Russian navy.

Kherson

There has been significant activity on the southern front. As the maps show, the Ukrainian Army is making small and steady gains. Again the map is courtesy of the Institute for the Study of War.


The Ukrainians are now less than 6 miles from Kherson City. Inside Kherson City, assassinations of collaborators and killings of off-duty Russian soldiers have become common. I doubt Ukraine will attempt to assault the city because that is a manpower-intensive and high-casualty operation. Instead, I would look for a Ukrainian offensive somewhere to the north aimed at the line of communication between Kherson and  Melitopol. The obvious objective is Nove Kharkova which sits astride that line of communication and controls the aqueduct that supplies Crimea with most of its potable water.

Kharkiv

Kharkiv is basically static. Both sides make small gains, but none seem to be sustainable. Ukraine’s primary objective here is to push Russian artillery out of range of Kharkiv and to bleed off forces that could be used in Donetsk to defend this area in an economy of force operation.


My prediction is that this will remain a backwater.

Donetsk

This theater of operations has gotten the most coverage because it is the only one where the Russians are having some success. The media needs a horserace narrative for their stories. The Putin fans want to point to it as a sign of Russia’s inevitable victory. So let’s look at how the front lines have changed in Donetsk over the last 60 days. The animation is courtesy of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

After some high-profile disasters, the Russians seem to have moved to dismounted operations supported by massive artillery strikes. The Ukrainians have fought a dogged defense, but they are trading terrain for force preservation. Australian General Mick Ryan’s take is, I think, the correct one.

There is no doubt casualties have been high on both sides. The Ukrainians do not seem to have the combat power to stop the Russian advance, and the Russians don’t have the logistics system to support a rapid offensive or the troops to execute it. This is not an existential battle for either side…unless one side or the other breaks. Is the Russian advance Rommel’s panzers in France in 1940? Or is it the Battle of the Bulge?

Prognosis

This war is at a stalemate for the moment. I haven’t written about the war because I haven’t seen much change in the underlying dynamics. Making predictions based on daily combat operations is like political analysts who make new predictions based on each poll.

The real struggle goes on out of sight. The Ukrainians declared conscription in March. Under a compressed training schedule, those units formed early should be making their appearance soon. The Russians are also having manpower issues. The daily bulletin by the UK Defence Ministry says that desertions and combat refusals, but they seem to be based on intercepted phone calls. Allegedly, Russian veterans are being offered three-month contracts to fight in Ukraine. At this point, I’m skeptical.

To me, the critical factor is that more modern varieties are replacing Ukrainian equipment. The Russians are digging into war stocks. In a long war, this will be decisive.

I see no evidence that Ukraine is in danger of political, moral, or military collapse.

However, I see evidence that Russia is looking for an exit. I believe that Russia is focusing on Donetsk because it wants to occupy the geographical boundaries of Luhansk and Donetsk and call for a cease-fire to attempt to lock in their gains. If Ukraine wants to continue the war, that could possibly cause some political difficulties inside NATO/EU.

My best guess is that we’ll see more of this until about August, and then the new round will open with different armies than started the war.

Biden Advisor is Pushed on Outrageous Gas Prices, Gives a Terrifying Answer Hailing the 'Liberal World Order'

by Leave a Comment

Does Joe Biden care about struggling Americans who are watching their paychecks disappear at the pump?

On CNN, such a question was put to Biden advisor Brian Deese.

Brian’s answer wasn’t exactly reassuring. In fact, one might call it terrifying.

Anchor Victor Blackwell spoke for a lot of Americans when he asked about punishing gas prices amid unmerciful inflation:

“What do you say to those families who say, ‘Listen, we can’t afford to pay $4.85 a gallon for months, if not years. This is just not sustainable’?”

According to Brian, you’ll have to grin and bear it. There are more important things than your family’s needs:

“Well, what you heard from the President today was a clear articulation of the stakes. This is about the future of the Liberal World Order, and we have to stand firm.”

If I’m not mistaken, that sounds like a Revelation-level evil rendition of “Let them eat cake.”

Is this the directive running our country? Is this the principle in practice by those in charge? Joe Biden doesn’t work for the “Liberal World Order.” At least, that isn’t his job. And he wasn’t sworn in to protect such a thing.

As you may recall, it’s not the first time we’ve heard the phrase.

From Newsweek, four months ago:

Claims about the existence and implementation of a “New World Order” have spread online after President Joe Biden used the phrase in a speech.

While the phrase “new world order” is generally used to denote a significant geopolitical change, it can also designate a conspiracy theory that stipulates a secretive globalist authority is seeking to control the world under a totalitarian regime and strip sovereign countries and its citizens of their freedom.

“Several conservatives and conspiracy theorists, including followers of the radical QAnon movement,” Newsweek posed, “quickly jumped on Biden using the words while speaking at Business Roundtable’s CEO Quarterly Meeting in Washington D.C. on Monday.”

During his speech about “opportunities to make some real changes” in how the world views matters in Ukraine, Joe shared this:

“As one of the top military people said to me in a secure meeting the other day, 60 million people died between 1900 and 1946. And since then, we’ve established a Liberal World Order, and that hadn’t happened in a long while. A lot of people dying, but nowhere near the chaos.

“And now is a time when things are shifting. There’s going to be a New World Order out there, and we’ve got to lead it. And we’ve got to unite the rest of the free world in doing it.”

Does that sound like fuel for conspiracy theorists, or does it sound like a country in dire need of redirection? Does Brian Deese’s defense of fuel you can scarcely afford sound like something to ignore in lieu of being needlessly alarmed, or does it strike you as a Code Red?

We’re in the red. In multiple ways.

But the midterms are upcoming. We’ll see where the state of the Liberal World Order is then.

-ALEX

See more content from me:

19th Century Bank Adds Pronouns to Teller Name Tags, Invites Unwoke Customers to Close Their Accounts

Boston University Publishes List That Connects Students to Teachers With Similar Sexual Interests

Jordan Peterson Is Suspended From Twitter After ‘Deadnaming’ Elliot Page

Find all my RedState work here.

Thank you for reading! Please sound off in the Comments section below.

Finland and Sweden Prepare to Join NATO as Turkey's Erdogan Withdraws His Veto

by Leave a Comment

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has removed his objections to the applications for NATO membership submitted by Sweden and Finland, guaranteeing those two previously unaligned nations will join the West’s bulwark alliance against Russian aggression.

In May, Sweden and Finland announced they would ask to become members of the NATO military alliance. This was an unprecedented step that even the threat of the USSR had not been able to accomplish (Finland Announces It Will Join NATO, Sweden to Follow, While Moscow Makes Its Usual Threats). Vladimir Putin’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine did accomplish what Joe Stalin couldn’t in no small part because Putin began making noises about reestablishing the boundaries of the Romanov’s Imperial Russia (Did a Quickly Deleted Essay in Russian Media Explain What Vladimir Putin Wants Russia to Gain From the Ukraine Invasion? and Putin’s Threats to Sweden and Finland Are Much More Real Than They Are Being Given Credit For).

Just as things seemed settled–even Putin’s closest friend in NATO, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, approved of the new members (Hungary’s Viktor Orban Clears the Way for Finland to Join NATO in a Matter of Months)–Erdogan threw in a stink bomb.

Erdogan has voiced opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO in the past week, saying their support for the Kurds raises questions about adding the two countries as NATO members. A senior Turkish official told Bloomberg Friday that Turkey wants Finland and Sweden to take a clear stance against Kurdish militants fighting in southeast Turkey, and that Turkey will hold negotiations over their membership. Erdogan’s spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin clarified Saturday that Turkey isn’t attempting to block Finland and Sweden’s bids entirely, but wants to ensure that the national security of all NATO members is taken into consideration.

As talks developed, it became apparent that Erdogan wanted three things. First, he wanted an arms embargo Sweden and Finland had imposed on Turkey over its ongoing war with various Kurdish groups lifted. He wanted Sweden to cut all ties with the Kurdish PKK faction. Finally, he wanted Sweden and Finland to extradite Kurdish militants as well as members of the Gülen Movement, whom Erdogan blames for a 2016 coup attempt.

Turkey is a member of NATO for precisely one reason: it controls the Bosporus and Dardanelles. During the Cold War, that key piece of geography bottled up the Soviet Black Sea Fleet and secured the Eastern Mediterranean. It is an economic basket case with no cultural, linguistic, political, or religious points of commonality to the West. Since the demise of the USSR, Turkey’s actions could frequently be mistaken for those of a Russian ally in the correct lighting. It cooperated with the Russians in the war in Syria. Its military links to Russia became so troubling that it was booted from the lucrative F-35 grift. Turkey has nearly gone to war with Greece several times over Cyprus and Greece’s exclusive economic zone n the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean. In my personal opinion, Turkey’s possession of “The Straits” is less important than its political instability and inability to cooperate with NATO on major issues. Were it up to me; I’d give them their severance papers and let them deal with Iran as best they can.

The day before the NATO Summit in Madrid, Turkey said it was fine with Sweden and Finland joining the club.

“As NATO allies, Finland and Sweden commit to fully support Turkey against threats to its national security,” NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, providing some details of the agreement. “This includes further amending their domestic legislation, cracking down on P.K.K. activities and entering into an agreement with Turkey on extradition,” he added, referring to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party which seeks an independent Kurdish state on territory partly within Turkey’s borders.

Mr. Erdogan had been blocking the Nordic countries’ NATO bids amid concerns over Sweden’s longtime support for the P.K.K. which has attacked nonmilitary targets and killed civilians in Turkey, is outlawed in that country and is designated by both the United States and the European Union as a terrorist organization.

But the memorandum does not specify the extradition of any of the 45 people or so Mr. Erdogan wanted sent to Turkey to face trial on terrorism charges. Sweden has already passed tougher legislation against terrorism that goes into effect July 1.

This move creates a permanent change in European security arrangements. Sweden and Finland bring two highly regarded and well-equipped armies into NATO. Moreover, both nations are on track to reach the NATO target of spending 2% of GDP on defense by 2023, something most NATO nations fail to do.

Turkey’s acquiescence to a move that definitely hurts Putin’s expansion goals in the Arctic and goes a long way toward making Russia’s Northern and Baltic Fleets impotent and confined to port in case of a crisis with NATO. It means that Erdogan has decided that, for the time being, it is to Turkey’s advantage to cast his lot with NATO and not with his former BFF Vladimir Putin.

US Should Be Cautious as Russia Raises Tensions Over Lithuania

by Leave a Comment

The European checkerboard grew increasingly complex over the weekend as economic sanctions over Ukraine continue to progress from talk to physical.  The latest round of EU sanctions bans the shipping of products such as coal, metals, construction materials, and advanced technology between EU territories and mainland Russia.

The Russian city Kaliningrad, the headquarters of the Russian Baltic Fleet and home to around 500,000 people is a pocket territory of Russia taken by the Soviet Union at the end of World War Two. After the end of the Cold War, Kaliningrad became isolated from the rest of Russia, an island with the Baltic Sea on one side and the now NATO countries of Poland and Lithuania between the territory and mainland Russia.

Kaliningrad’s position is similar to that of Crimea, the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea fleet, which was also geographically isolated from mainland Russia by Ukraine until it was annexed by the Vladimir Putin’s Russian Federation with operations beginning in February 2014 and a treaty signed by the 18th of March.

For many years, the flow of goods between mainland Russia and Kaliningrad was via rail lines passing through the former Soviet republic of Lithuania, now independent and a member of the EU and NATO.

And so is created this latest crisis.

The sanctions declared by the West stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine are beginning to move from the preparations phase to the implementation phase where goods and services would begin to be physically restricted.

Beginning in June 2022, Lithuania started imposing the sanctions regime on goods shipped by rail through their territory to and from Russia, which in this case is from mainland Russia to isolated province Kaliningrad. Lithuania has stated that it is only restricting items that are on the EU’s sanction list per the timeline of restrictions implementation; the transport of people and all other non-sanctioned goods remain free to move.

According to EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, Vilnius is complying with the sixth round of sanctions imposed by the European Union. Borrell is quoted as saying, “Lithuania has not taken any unilateral national restrictions and only applies the European Union sanctions.”

This seems to have caught the Russians unprepared. Kaliningrad Governor Anton Alikhanov has noted that Russia had begun operating two ferries between Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg to handle the restricted traffic but would not have an additional seven ferries in operation to compensate for Lithuania’s rail restrictions until later this year.

Moscow is said to be summoning diplomatic representatives from both Lithuania and the European Union to discuss the matter.

But Moscow is also saber-rattling. On Monday, the Russian foreign ministry stated that: “If in the near future cargo transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of the territory of the Russian Federation through Lithuania is not restored in full, then Russia reserves the right to take actions to protect its national interests.”

Moscow has said this before. It said so in 2014 when it annexed the Russian Navy base in Crimea, an act that ultimately led to the war in Ukraine.

The trouble with this naval base on the Baltic Sea is that taking and holding territory to “protect its national interests” goes through land that triggers NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense pact, even if Lithuania, like Ukraine, is a former Soviet republic.

My RedState colleague Streiff also published a piece on this development this morning: Lithuania Enforces EU Sanctions on Kaliningrad and Putin’s Toadies Lose Their Minds – RedState

I’m a bit more focused on how Lithuania is a potential matchstick. The stakes for tension escalating to igniting a major war from what is beginning to happen in Lithuania are more serious for world peace than what is happening in Ukraine.

Ukraine is still technically a non-aligned country. It is not yet a member of either the European Union or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which means all sides can roughhouse in it and, quite literally, get away with murder.

The fact of the matter is that, despite all the media coverage of the bravery of Ukraine in its fight against Russia, the advantage of the war has shifted in favor of the Russians. The world fought the battle of the Fulda Gap earlier this year and the NATO defense strategy to stop a mobile tank army in its tracks using man-portable anti-tank missiles worked perfectly.  The Western militaries celebrated vindication of their investment in defense that began with the invention of the US TOW missile first used in Vietnam.

But that phase of the war has ended.  It has transitioned to the defense of Ukrainian cities against something the Russian army is particularly good at — the meat grinding siege craft of rolling artillery barrages. The Ukrainians are slowly but surely buckling. The Russians have also learned the lesson from their own logistic blunders of the importance of interdiction of the supply lines between the West and the Ukrainian Army. Sadly, things will play out with many Ukrainian lives lost until a peace treaty, urged by the West, forcing the Zelensky government to accept, eventually ends the active conflict.

Picking up the pieces of the mess in Ukraine will then begin. Repairing the damage done to the European economic landscape will take decades. The animus between West and East will perpetuate tensions and threaten political stability on both sides of the Ukrainian hole in the ground.

The key question is: Will it end before other flashpoints on the European checkerboard explode? The US and the EU, and indeed the Russians as well, need to navigate sanctions-induced tension with care. Lithuania instantly triggers calamitous treaties if something goes wrong.  As the remainder of this year plays out, I would rate it as a dangerous flashpoint on the same order as Sarajevo was to trigger World War One. Other fractures are likely to emerge both in the West and in Russia.

This begins to shift the focus of the narrative from keeping the Ukrainians viable to keeping Europe and America alive. How quickly the mainstream media figures it out and starts to ask hard questions, I don’t know.