While it’s been clear for a few weeks that Republicans have come out on top regarding redistricting for the coming mid-terms, there was one final piece of the puzzle left. That piece has now fallen into place.
A court-ordered map in New York has been adopted, and it’s lights out for Democrats heading into November. While the original Democrat map, which was struck down by the state’s Supreme Court, had a likely outcome of 22 D-seats to 4-R seats, the new map puts as many as 12 seats in play for the GOP.
Quick, messy analysis: this draft map seems devastating for House Dems. Five districts lean Republican. And NY-2, 3, 18, 19 and 22 are all tossups. 4 and 17 could be won by a Republican in a wave year.
That’s like *12 of 26* districts in play for the GOP.https://t.co/aW2C5fwyYY pic.twitter.com/LIcCZrGNaI
— Jeff Coltin (@JCColtin) May 16, 2022
Republicans were looking at a modest 1-3 seat gain via redistricting after Ron DeSantis worked his magic in Florida (there’s a single district there under dispute, but nothing that can change the game). Now, you could be talking about a 5-8 seat gain just by virtue of the lines that have been drawn across the nation. Democrats who were celebrating a month ago at some earlier court victories have had their hopes of stemming the tide crushed.
One of the things the New York map fixed was an illegal gerrymander in New York City that diluted the voting power of Orthodox Jews, a demographic that leans heavily Republican. That’s left Rep. Jerry Nadler, who would retire if he had any sense given his age and health concerns, in the same district as another Democrat. Elsewhere, Republicans are set up to make headway in what should be a wave year for them.
In the end, the dynamics of the coming election don’t change much, but if 2020 taught us anything, it’s that every seat counts in future elections. Democrats went from a large majority to only holding the house by five seats in a single cycle. So while Republicans are going to gain a lot of seats this year, having more room for error in 2024 and 2026 could be the difference between keeping control and losing it.
Anyway, let the rage ensue. Democrats are already throwing a fit on social media over the New York map, and there’s a lot of crying left to do.