<![CDATA[Polling]]>

Poll: DeSantis Is the Second Choice for Most Republican Voters. Here’s Why That’s Good for His Campaign

September 27, 2023 by Jeff Charles Leave a Comment

In the constantly evolving world of American politics, early poll results often become the subject of debate – especially during a presidential election season. Pundits, analysts, and other members of the chattering class are quick to draw certain conclusions about the numbers.

This is especially true of the Republican primary race. Currently, former President Donald Trump maintains a healthy lead in the polling and has continued to dominate the race since he first announced his candidacy. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, once viewed as a potentially formidable opponent, trails the former president by over 40 points, according to the latest RealClearPolitics average. The fact that the governor’s campaign has experienced some serious setbacks seems to further solidify Trump’s lead.

However, as Lenny Kravitz says, “It Ain’t Over ‘Till Its Over.”

In fact, another recent poll shows that DeSantis might actually be in a better position than it seems. A YouGov/Economist survey recently analyzed attitudes among Republican voters. The results showed that Trump still remains the top choice for conservative voters by a 39-point margin, with 51 percent of respondents backing him. DeSantis pulled about 12 percent support while Nikki Haley and Mike Pence remain in single digits. However, as RedState’s Manic Contrarian warned, we must be careful about fully trusting flash polls – especially those conducted this early in the process.

What is noteworthy about this particular survey is the question about which candidate Republicans would choose as their second choice if their first pick does not work out. When it comes to those numbers, DeSantis is far and away the favorite, garnering 24 percent support. Even Trump did not come close to challenging the governor, when it comes to being the second choice; he got only eight percent. The closest contender to DeSantis would be entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who got 12 percent.

This might not sound like good news for the governor. After all, who wants to be people’s second choice? But this is significant for a few reasons.

For starters, what is going to happen when primary candidates start dropping out of the race? The Iowa and New Hampshire primaries are almost upon us, and it is likely that we will begin seeing some of the contenders end their campaigns. This means that most of those who supported these individuals will throw their support behind DeSantis, which will put him in a much better position to challenge the former president. Indeed, as the race narrows, the governor stands to benefit the most.

Moreover, four indictments still loom large over Trump’s campaign. While the politically motivated charges against the former president have only helped him in the primary race, what would happen if he ends up facing jail time before the primaries are concluded?

At this point, it is not easy to see how this would change things. It could easily strengthen his support among the base. But it is also possible that, depending on the nature of the charges and the evidence presented, it might damage his campaign enough to motivate his supporters to fall back on their second choice: Ron DeSantis.

Of course, it is impossible to predict how this will play out just yet. But while Trump remains the clear frontrunner, anything can change as the primary season rolls on.

Biden Tries Desperately to Reassure Americans About His Age: Does Anyone Buy It?

September 19, 2023 by Jeff Charles Leave a Comment

President Joe Biden understands he has an age problem. So do Democrats wishing he would drop out of the race. But even with their acknowledgments and attempts to spin the issue, the American public remains doubtful about his ability to serve out a second term in office.

During a recent speech at a fundraiser, Biden attempted to assuage concerns about his age and cognitive abilities.

President Biden at a New York City fund-raising trip on Monday evening outlined why he’s running for re-election and addressed concerns about his age.
Driving the news: “A lot of people seem focused on my age,” the 80-year-old president said, per a pool report from the Broadway fund-raiser. “I get it believe me, I know it more than anyone.
But he said he”knew what to do” to combat COVID and when Russian military forces launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
“That’s why I’m running,” he said. “I’m running because democracy is at stake,” he added, pointing to his closest 2024 election rival, 77-year-old former President Trump.
“Because 2024 democracy is on the ballot once again. And let there be no question: Donald Trump and his MAGA republicans are determined to destroy American democracy. And I will always defend, protect and fight for our democracy.”

Nevertheless, there is no denying that age has become a prominent factor in the upcoming presidential election. However, the age issue has been far more deleterious to Biden than to former President Donald Trump, who is in his late 70s. Numerous polls show that even Democratic voters believe Biden’s age is a problem.

But few offered confident assessments that Biden’s stubbornly low approval ratings would rebound before next year, and many conceded that one of the president’s most significant challenges is one he has no control over: his age. Supporters and critics alike suggested that Biden’s prospects may hinge on whether he can find a way to overcome a persistent and growing feeling in the electorate that his advanced age is his defining characteristic.
…
An August survey from Associated Press/NORC found that 77 percent of Americans, including 69 percent of Democrats, thought Biden was too old to be effective for another four-year term. When asked what word came to mind when they thought of Biden, more than a quarter of respondents mentioned age, with another 15 percent using words like “slow” or “confused.”
Other polls are also flashing warning signs for Democrats. A CNN/SSRS survey found that Biden’s approval rating was mired at 39 percent, with nearly three-quarters of respondents saying they were concerned about his age. The poll also found that most Democrats want the party to nominate a different presidential candidate.

A recent CBS News poll shows Trump in a statistical dead heat with Biden despite his ongoing legal battles. Moreover, it reveals that voter enthusiasm among Biden supporters than it is among those who back Trump.

There has been much talk among Democratic circles of replacing Biden as the nominee. But the president remains the presumptive nominee. The fact that Democrats don’t plan to have the president debate against other Democratic contenders all but completely seals the deal.

In light of this, Biden’s reassurances will likely ring hollow for the Democratic base, most of whom will still vote for him in the general election. But when it comes to independents and moderates, these concerns could very well push them into Trump’s camp, even if they do not have a favorable opinion of the former president. At this point, the age issues are baked into the Biden cake. Democrats will have to hope they can convince the voting public to fear another Trump term more than letting Biden remain in the White House.

The Numbers Are Looking Outstanding for Trump, Not so Great for Biden

September 19, 2023 by Jeff Charles Leave a Comment

A number of recent polls have given good news for former President Donald Trump and not-so-good news for President Joe Biden in the upcoming presidential election. While primary season is far from over, Trump enjoys a healthy lead over the rest of the field and is likely to become the GOP nominee.

A new CBS News poll analyzed, among other questions, attitudes about Biden and Trump and who Americans might favor in the upcoming election. However, it also unveiled some intricate dynamics that could prove pivotal for the race to the White House.

For starters, when asked who respondents would vote for if the election were held today, 50 percent chose Trump while 49 percent went with Biden. This is in line with other polls showing Trump tied with, or defeating, the current president.

What was most noteworthy about this poll were questions related to why Americans were supporting their chosen candidate.

For Biden, a slender majority of his voters support him mostly to oppose Trump, not necessarily because they like the president. When asked about their motivation, 49 percent indicated they would vote for Biden to support him while 51 percent said they would vote for Biden mostly to prevent Trump from winning.

On the other hand, the results for Trump were markedly different. About 61 percent of respondents indicated they would vote for Trump because they support him while 39 percent said they would do so to get Biden out of the White House.

These numbers point to a distinct enthusiasm gap between the two candidates. This could play a significant role in the outcome of the 2024 election if Trump is the nominee.

Enthusiasm can be a huge factor in driving voter turnout. Candidates who have an engaged and energized base tend to fare better in elections than those who have a low level of enthusiasm for their candidacy. Voter enthusiasm is considered a significant predictor of turnout. Several studies have shown how the level of enthusiasm can determine the outcome of elections, meaning that the results of the CBS News poll could be a prime factor in influencing the trajectory of the presidential race.

Moreover, enthusiasm can also have a great influence on fundraising. The more excited people are by a candidate, the more they are likely to donate, volunteer, and advocate for their person. This is an encouraging sign for the Republican base, even those who have doubts about supporting Trump.

On the other side, Biden’s lack of strong enthusiasm might be a serious hurdle to overcome. Concerns about his age and cognitive ability have plagued his campaign and presidency, and it’s only getting worse. It might cause people to be hesitant about turning out to support him even if they believe he is the better choice.

Of course, it is important to note that these polls are just snapshots of a particular moment in the timeline. These numbers could easily change in the face of new developments. While the indictments against Trump have only strengthened his candidacy, this may not always be the case – especially if it appears that he will be convicted and face jail time. Still, the numbers do show that the myriad of politically motivated legal actions against the former president are far from derailing his chances of occupying the White House once again.

Trump vs. Biden Contest Pulling Former President’s Way

September 17, 2023 by Ward Clark Leave a Comment

A new round of polls is making things look even worse for President Biden, especially in a match-up against former President Donald Trump.

A new @CBSNewsPoll finds former Pres. Trump has a one-point edge over Pres. Biden in a potential rematch. Only a third of voters think Biden would finish a second term. By almost three to one, voters think only Trump is physically healthy enough for the job, @salvantoCBS reports. pic.twitter.com/mzb0FcRNyN
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) September 17, 2023

On Friday, my colleague Nick Arama gave us an excellent rundown on polls up to that point. There have been some interesting developments since.

One of the more interesting sets of results comes out of a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, which shows Trump pulling ahead in some key Electoral College states:

U.S. President Joe Biden’s chances of re-election are being jeopardized by voters’ concerns over his age, the economy and crime, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, creating an opportunity for Republican challenger Donald Trump to return to the White House.
The opinion poll found Democrat Biden, 80, tied in a hypothetical November 2024 election against Trump, 77, the former president who is the front-runner for the Republican nomination, with both receiving 39% of the vote and one in five voters undecided.
Democrats held a strong advantage among voters most concerned about protecting abortion rights, while Republicans had an edge among those worried about crime, the poll found.

The results here—as in abortion versus crime—are not surprising since those results would have been obtained in most Presidential surveys since about 1980. But here’s the onion:

But in a worrisome result for Biden, Trump held a small advantage in the seven states where the 2020 presidential election was closest: Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Michigan. In those states, Trump led with 41% to Biden’s 35%, and 24% undecided.

If we plug those states as Trump wins into a proposed 2024 electoral college map (using the 270toWin interactive tool), these are the results you get:

This is interesting indeed: not a landslide, but a comfortable win. And it’s not unreasonable to think that Arizona and Wisconsin may well be in play, as well.

Donald Trump also holds a significant edge on the age issue:

Voters expressed concern over Biden’s age and his fitness for office. Seventy-seven percent of respondents, including 65% of Democrats, said Biden is too old to be president, while just 39% said Biden was mentally sharp enough for the presidency.
By comparison, 56% of poll respondents said Trump is too old for the office, while 54% said he was mentally sharp enough to handle the challenges of the presidency.

This is sure to be a key issue, given President Biden’s increasing and concerning mental and physical deterioration.

As of this writing, the RealClearPolitics averages of polling show former President Trump narrowly leading President Biden, 45.6 to 45. President Biden has an edge over Florida Governor Run DeSantis at 44.8 to 41.4, while former President Trump is trouncing Vice President Harris, 45.3 to 41.3. As far as the GOP nomination goes, the national average has former President Trump way out in front of the pack with 56.6 percent of the vote. President Biden likewise leads the Democrat field with 66.7 percent of the vote.

It would be easy to look at these results and think that 2024 is increasingly shaping up to be a repeat of the 2020 contest, only with both candidates four years older and facing legal challenges. However, it’s important to remember a few things:

First, not one primary vote has yet been cast in either party; at this point in the 2008 contest, most people were pretty certain that the contest would end up being between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. It’s not too late for everyone’s current assumptions to be knocked into a cocked hat.

Second, President Biden’s health is becoming a serious worry for Democrats, especially given their lack of a capable understudy. Vice President Harris’s approval ratings are similar to those for polecats or navel lint. California Governor Gavin Newsom has denied being interested in the job, at least this time around.

Third, President Trump is beset with legal challenges. He may be able to campaign effectively despite this; in fact, it may well energize the GOP base like no one has yet suspected.

It is, as yet, very early in the cycle. But it’s sure shaping up to be an interesting race.

No One Wants Joe Biden. No One Likes Kamala Harris.

September 15, 2023 by Joe Cunningham Leave a Comment

Democrats have a lot of reasons to be panicking right now. The 2024 election is anything but decided – hell, it’s not even 2024 yet – but the increasing negatives surrounding Joe Biden and his administration are becoming too hot for the Democratic Party to have an answer for.

The polling when it comes to Biden has been less than stellar, and it’s not new. It’s been in trouble since the Afghanistan withdrawal two years ago, but it’s tanked in recent months. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll seems to confirm that the bad times are here to stay.

U.S. President Joe Biden’s chances of re-election are being jeopardized by voters’ concerns over his age, the economy and crime, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, creating an opportunity for Republican challenger Donald Trump to return to the White House.
The opinion poll found Democrat Biden, 80, tied in a hypothetical November 2024 election against Trump, 77, the former president who is the front-runner for the Republican nomination, with both receiving 39% of the vote and one in five voters undecided.

But in a worrisome result for Biden, Trump held a small advantage in the seven states where the 2020 presidential election was closest: Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Michigan. In those states, Trump led with 41% to Biden’s 35%, and 24% undecided.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online nationwide from Sept. 8 through Sept. 14, gathering responses from 4,413 U.S. adults. It had a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of about 2 percentage points.

And things don’t get any better.

Biden faces the risk of losing independent voters, whom he won decisively in 2020. If the election were held now, Trump had 32% support among independents to Biden’s 30%, effectively a tie with the a 38% plurality still undecided, the poll found.
Biden held an early advantage among voters who said they were completely certain they would vote next year – they favored the Democrat 49%-38% with just 13% undecided. Since his 2020 loss, Trump has continued to falsely claim that his defeat was the result of fraud, which could serve to undercut some of his supporters’ faith in the electoral process.

Biden is suffering terrible polling primarily because of his age and the economy, but those aren’t the only problems. Checking in with the RealClearPolitics polling averages, his approval on a host of issues are just abysmal.

It’s a big deal to have such an unpopular guy going into a re-election bid. These numbers are catastrophic, and while the country is on the verge of an economic recession, a high-profile crime wave, a crisis at the southern border, and more, Biden appears to be doing less than nothing. It’s got to have the Democrats in a bad mood.

It’s not just Biden, however. Vice President Kamala Harris has long been suffering from terrible polling and optics. High-profile Democrats, like Nancy Pelosi, won’t commit to saying she’s the best person for the job. Jamie Raskin refused four times to say it.

This might just be the least popular tag team we’ve ever seen. Biden’s best-case scenario is tying Trump in a general election, but his worst-case scenario is running against any of the other candidates, all of whom are frequently shown beating Biden in a head-to-head match-up. He could maybe do better if his second-in-command wasn’t so disliked. His age means she is one heartbeat away from being the president and considering her run for president in 2020 was slightly longer than Aaron Rodgers’ run as the starting quarterback for the Jets, it’s pretty clear the American people have known for a while they’d prefer literally anyone else at the helm but her.

I wouldn’t want to be a Democrat looking ahead at 2024 right now. Trump might be their best hope for keeping power, if the polling stands up, but it’s far from a sure bet. And while the Democrats put on brave faces on the outside, there has to be a lot of crying behind closed doors these days.